Jambalaya

This week's British Medical Journal sports a series of articles that promise "a greater impact on the prevention of disease in the Western world than any other known intervention". The authors predict that by taking a 'polypill' containing six ingredients - each of which has been shown to reduce the instances of heart attack (aspirin, a statin, folic acid, a diuretic, a beta blocker and an ACE inhibitor) - an 80% reduction in risk of cardiovascular events, including heart attack, stroke and death could be achieved. Put another way, people aged 55-64 would on average gain 20 years of life without heart attack or stroke. Exciting stuff.

But hang on a minute: where does this lead us? Both our parents both died suddenly: father aged 52 from a heart attack and mother aged 64 from a stroke. Devastating for us at the time, but not for them, and we can now remember them as lively, happy individuals with much to have been proud of in their lives. They, and we, were spared the slow decline, loss of faculties and reducing independence that characterises so much of old age nowadays. Both parents (one a doctor) had a horror of ending up in this way and I doubt very much that they would have popped these pills, had they been around in their time.

That would have been their choice, and we can choose too, though it may be medico-politically incorrect to defy 'evidence' as powerful as this. Although the articles draw a comparison with vaccination in terms of population impact on preventing disease, there is fortunately little chance that any government would make ingestion of these compounds compulsory, as is MMR immunization, and fluoridization of water supplies in some areas. The impact on pension funding and provision of elderly care would simply be too prohibitive.

I am sitting on a train -- the Scottish Pullman -- on my way from King's Cross to York for the annual BAMM conference. For a change I am travelling ordinary class: the super advanced saver return at ｣49 was too good to miss.

The accomodation is quite good: air conditioned and more than adequately comfortable. There are two types of seats: cramped and not-so-cramped. The former spacesavers are stacked like airline seats. The latter (to which I have upgraded myself) are the familiar four to a table variety. I needed a table to write on, but the train is flying so fast (under two hours to York) and swaying so much that writing is pretty near impossible.

[Scribbled on a train yesterday: transcribed today in a York Internet cafe that is entirely Mac. Wow!]

The weather at the moment is dominated by a large cyclonic depression centred to the northwest of Ireland. It hasn't changed its position much over the past week and looks well dug in. It is pulling strong damp southwesterly/westerly winds across the country with periods of heavy rain alternating with fine but windy spells punctuated by heavy showers. It is warm in the sun but cooler when cloud dominates, making choice of attire difficult. The garden is doing well out of it, save for those plants that have been damaged by the wind.

Satellite photographs show the depression as a giant catherine wheel of cloud, larger overall than the British Isles. High pressure building to the East, over northern Europe is no doubt impeding its easterly progress but this doesn't do much to diminish its massive internal energy.

The awsome power of the elements is worth remembering: it is not a recent phenomenon, as global warmists might have us believe.

Our local NHS Hospital Trust, the Oxford Radcliffe, has just appointed its fourth chief executive in nine years: Trevor Campbell Davis who is presently CE of the Whittington NHS Trust in London.

Mr Campbell Davis succeeds the very accomplished and popular David Highton, who had hoped to stay in the post longer than his two predecessors (one of which, Nigel Crisp, now heads up the entire NHS). As far as one can tell, leaving was not one of David's planned career moves, and the NHS has as a result kissed goodbye to talent it can ill afford to lose.

There has been a significant hiatus since the interviews 10 days ago and today's announcement. One can only hope that Mr Campbell Davis has used the time wisely to negotiate himself some rock solid insurance lest he encounter a similar fate. We wish him well